Excellent, as usual. And/but as you point out, everyone is expecting a “spring offensive.” If there is no significant change to the status quo by midsummer, then the pressure from within the US will grow. More people will say that it is time to end the conflict and our support
The structural problem remains: Russia mistrusts the West, especially the US and Germany. Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics distrust and fear Russia. Freezing the conflict in Eastern Ukraine just sweeps the conflict under the rug - it won’t go away.
Mr. Adams doesn't talk at all about the Minsk II Accord, which was sanctioned by the UN, thus becoming International Law. Which Ukraine, France, Germany, US have totally ignored, because probably "international rules based order", which is more like Calvin's cannonball rules.
Mr. Adams also doesn't talk about the Astana and Istanbul agreements part of the OSCE security agreements, that enshrine the principle that there shall not be a built up security of some to the detriment of others. Either everyone has security or nobody has security. US and Europe think that they can threaten anyone without any repercussion. We have just seen late last week the US Patriot battery being destroyed by a Russian Kinzhal missile.
Russians have already laid down their demands in December 2021 and likely have not changed their minds. Also, when they attacked Ukraine they stated that they want safety for the Russian minority in Ukraine, de-nazification (that is code word in Russian of somebody that wants to kill Russians - see Generalplan Ost) of Ukraine, demilitarization of Ukraine, and keeping Ukraine out of NATO or other alliances that target Russia. But Putin has said quite a while ago that the more this conflict lasts, the harder will be to negotiate... especially for the west and for Ukraine, because they will likely be empty handed.
Harper's Magazine has just asked very recently a pertinent question: "Why are we in Ukraine?"
But Mr. Adams is right to say that freezing is not a solution, and it is something based on the idea that Russians would agree. Why this assumption, I don't know. We have to remember the other assumption at the start of the confrontation, that west's sanctions will cripple Russian economy, will turn the ruble into rubble, and Russia will capitulate and Putin would have to go due to internal upheavals.
Given this original assumption and the resulting outcome, now I am expecting that the talk of freezing will in fact lead to the occupation of Ukraine up to Dnieper River, and in south up to R of Moldova borders...
Excellent, as usual. And/but as you point out, everyone is expecting a “spring offensive.” If there is no significant change to the status quo by midsummer, then the pressure from within the US will grow. More people will say that it is time to end the conflict and our support
The structural problem remains: Russia mistrusts the West, especially the US and Germany. Ukraine, Poland and the Baltics distrust and fear Russia. Freezing the conflict in Eastern Ukraine just sweeps the conflict under the rug - it won’t go away.
Precisely my point Matt. Freezing it will not make it go away.
Mr. Adams doesn't talk at all about the Minsk II Accord, which was sanctioned by the UN, thus becoming International Law. Which Ukraine, France, Germany, US have totally ignored, because probably "international rules based order", which is more like Calvin's cannonball rules.
Mr. Adams also doesn't talk about the Astana and Istanbul agreements part of the OSCE security agreements, that enshrine the principle that there shall not be a built up security of some to the detriment of others. Either everyone has security or nobody has security. US and Europe think that they can threaten anyone without any repercussion. We have just seen late last week the US Patriot battery being destroyed by a Russian Kinzhal missile.
Russians have already laid down their demands in December 2021 and likely have not changed their minds. Also, when they attacked Ukraine they stated that they want safety for the Russian minority in Ukraine, de-nazification (that is code word in Russian of somebody that wants to kill Russians - see Generalplan Ost) of Ukraine, demilitarization of Ukraine, and keeping Ukraine out of NATO or other alliances that target Russia. But Putin has said quite a while ago that the more this conflict lasts, the harder will be to negotiate... especially for the west and for Ukraine, because they will likely be empty handed.
Harper's Magazine has just asked very recently a pertinent question: "Why are we in Ukraine?"
The answer doesn't look good: https://harpers.org/archive/2023/06/why-are-we-in-ukraine/
But Mr. Adams is right to say that freezing is not a solution, and it is something based on the idea that Russians would agree. Why this assumption, I don't know. We have to remember the other assumption at the start of the confrontation, that west's sanctions will cripple Russian economy, will turn the ruble into rubble, and Russia will capitulate and Putin would have to go due to internal upheavals.
Given this original assumption and the resulting outcome, now I am expecting that the talk of freezing will in fact lead to the occupation of Ukraine up to Dnieper River, and in south up to R of Moldova borders...